Total cost of ownership of fuel cell vehicles in China under carbon neutral target scenario
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摘要:
以碳中和目标为情景，建立燃料电池车总拥有成本(Total Cost of Ownership, TCO)计算模型；应用学习曲线理论预测构成燃料电池车的关键部件的成本变化趋势；讨论当下主流制氢技术路径的未来制氢成本；通过TCO反映我国燃料电池车未来成本趋势、竞争力及关键影响因素.
Abstract:In the carbon neutral target scenario, a calculation model for total cost of ownership (TCO) of fuel cell vehicles was developed, and the learning curve theory was applied to predict the cost trend of the key components of fuel cell vehicles. The future cost of hydrogen production for the current mainstream technology path was predicted. TCO was used to represent the future cost trend, competitiveness and key influencing factors of China’s fuel cell vehicles.
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图 3 全球纯电动车和燃料电池车存量规模情景假设
Figure 3. Global battery electric vehicle (BEV) and fuel cell vehicle (FCEV) inventory size scenario hypothesis
图 4 关键部件在燃料电池车不同规模部署情景下的成本变化趋势
Figure 4. Cost trends of key components in different scale deployment scenarios of fuel cell vehicles
图 5 燃料电池车在不同规模情景下的整车购置成本预测
Figure 5. Purchase cost forecast of fuel cell vehicles in different scale scenarios
图 8 经济驱动型制氢技术组合情景下制氢技术类型权重、制氢成本及碳排放情况
Figure 8. Proportion, average cost and carbon emission of hydrogen production technology types in combination scenario of economic driven hydrogen production technology
图 9 低碳驱动型制氢技术组合情景下制氢技术类型权重、制氢成本及碳排放情况
Figure 9. Proportion, average cost and carbon emission of hydrogen production technology types in combination scenario of low-carbon driven hydrogen production technology
图 10 车辆不同规模部署情景下燃料电池车年度运营成本
Figure 10. Annual operating costs of fuel cell vehicles in different scale deployment scenarios
图 11 车辆乐观规模和基本规模部署情景下燃料电池车年度TCO
Figure 11. Annual TCO for fuel cell vehicles in optimistic-scale and base-scale vehicle deployment scenarios
图 12 车辆不同规模部署情景及不同制氢技术组合燃料电池车每公里TCO
Figure 12. TCO per km of fuel cell vehicles in different scale deployment scenarios and different hydrogen technology combinations
图 13 经济驱动型制氢技术组合氢价下燃料电池车成本竞争力
Figure 13. Cost competitiveness of fuel cell vehicles for hydrogen price by the combination scenario of economic driven hydrogen production technology
图 14 DSMR（含CCS的天然气站内制氢）制氢的燃料电池车成本竞争力
Figure 14. Cost competitiveness of fuel cell vehicles for hydrogen production by DSMR (distributed hydrogen production by nature gas with CCS)
图 15 DWE(风电/光伏站内电解水制氢）制氢来源的燃料电池车成本竞争力
Figure 15. Cost competitiveness of fuel cell vehicles for hydrogen production by DWE (electrolysis of water for distributed hydrogen production by wind power/ photovoltaic power)
图 16 车辆总拥有成本对氢气价格的敏感性
Figure 16. Sensitivity analysis of total cost of ownership to hydrogen price
图 20 车辆总拥有成本对碳税的敏感性
Figure 20. Sensitivity analysis of total cost of ownership to carbon tax
图 17 车辆总拥有成本对年度行驶里程的敏感性
Figure 17. Sensitivity analysis of total cost of ownership to annual mileage
图 18 车辆总拥有成本对百公里能耗的敏感性
Figure 18. Sensitivity analysis of total cost of ownership to 100 km energy consumption
图 19 车辆总拥有成本对燃料电池系统学习率的敏感性
Figure 19. Sensitivity analysis of total cost of ownership to fuel cell system learning rate
表 1 典型工况的我国燃料电池车购置成本结构
Table 1. Purchase cost structure of fuel cell vehicles in China for typical working conditions
项目 燃料电池客车 燃料电池物流车 燃料电池港口重卡 整车购置成本（不含补贴）/万元 195 130 150 燃料电池系统成本/（万元•kW−1） 1.1 1.5 1.0 燃料电池系统成本占比/% 53 58 53 车载储氢系统成本/（万元•kg−1） 1.10 1.33 0.71 车载储氢系统成本占比/% 12 11 17 动力电池系统成本/（万元•(kWh)−1） 0.15 0.23 0.15 动力电池系统成本占比/% 8 4 10 驱动电机系统成本/（万元•kW−1） 0.110 0.080 0.047 驱动电机系统成本占比/% 10 4 7 车身及其他设施成本占比/% 17 23 13 
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表 2 关键部件成本及学习率设置
Table 2. Key component cost and learning rate
关键部件 初始成本 底线成本 学习率/% 燃料电池系统/（元•kW−1） 10000 206 20 车载储氢系统/（元•kg−1） 10000 1833 15 动力电池系统/（元•(kWh)−1） 1500 861 15 驱动电机系统/（元•kW−1） 800 37 15
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表 3 我国天然气制氢成本(含CCS)预测
Table 3. Cost forecast of hydrogen production from natural gas (including CCS) in China
元/kg 制氢类型 2020年 2030年 2040年 2050年 DSMR分布式站内天然气制氢 11.65 11.21 10.85 10.67 CSMR集中式天然气制氢 12.27 11.79 11.40 11.21
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表 4 我国集中式煤制氢成本（含CCS）预测
Table 4. Cost forecast of hydrogen centralized production from coal (including CCS) in China
元/kg 制氢类型 2020年 2030年 2040年 2050年 CG集中式煤制氢成本 17.16 16.06 15.75 15.54
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表 5 不同电力来源及形式的电解水制氢成本预测
Table 5. Cost prediction of hydrogen production from electrolysis of water by different power sources and forms
元/kg 制氢类型 2020年 2025年 2030年 2040年 2050年 DWE(并网电力分布
式站内电解水制氢)成本— 33.22 28.48 27.98 28.34 CWE(风电/光伏集中
式电解水制氢）成本20.28 14.30 10.10 7.03 5.10 DWE(风电/光伏分布
式站内电解水制氢)成本— 14.82 10.62 7.55 5.61
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表 6 车辆TCO竞争力分析框架
Table 6. Competitiveness analysis framework of total cost of ownership for vehicles
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