基于演化博弈的航企与OTA平台竞合研究

Analysis of competition and cooperation between airlines and OTA platforms based on evolutionary game theory

School of Air Transportation and School of Flying, Shanghai University of Engineering Science, Shanghai 201620, China

摘要: 以航企与在线旅游代理（online travel agency, OTA）平台在竞争与合作过程中的策略选择为研究对象，建立演化博弈模型，利用复制动态方程与雅可比矩阵研究其策略选择的演化趋势。以中国东方航空（简称东航）与OTA平台携程为例，使用Matlab演化博弈仿真工具，研究不同参数变化对双方策略选择的影响。结果显示，东航采取“提直降代”，OTA平台采取“退守酒店、租赁产业”是双方演化博弈的稳定均衡策略。
- 航空公司 /
- 在线旅游平台 /
- 演化博弈
Abstract: To investigate the strategy choice between airlines and online travel agency (OTA) platforms within a competitive-cooperative context, an evolutionary game model was constructed. The replication dynamic equation and Jacobian matrix applied to explore the evolutionary trajectory of their strategies. Taking China Eastern Airlines and the OTA platform Ctrip as a case study, the impact of varying parameters on the strategies of both sides was examined through Matlab based evolutionary game simulation method. Research shows that the stable equilibrium result of evolutionary game is that China Eastern Airlines will adopt the strategy of "increasing direct sales and reducing agency sales", while the OTA platform will adopt the strategy of "retreating to the hotel and leasing industry".
- airlines /
- online travel agency (OTA) platform /
- evolutionary game

图 1 情形1~4动态演化相位图

Figure 1. Dynamic evolution phase diagram for proposition 1 to 4

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图 2 初始合作意愿仿真图

Figure 2. Initial willingness to cooperate

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图 3 参数调整对稳定演化策略的影响

Figure 3. Impact of parameter adjustment on stable evolution strategy

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图 4 东航与OTA平台携程演化博弈结果

Figure 4. Evolution game results between China Eastern Airlines and OTA platform Ctrip

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表 1 博弈模型中的相关参变量及其含义

Table 1. Relevant parameters and variables in game model

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表 2 航企和OTA平台策略博弈收益矩阵

Table 2. Profit matrix of strategy game between airlines and OTA platforms

博弈主体		OTA平台
博弈主体		采取“退守酒店、租赁产业”	不采取“退守酒店、租赁产业”
航企	采取“提直降代”策略	$ R - F - L - (C - {C_{\mathrm{e}}}) + (1 - \alpha )B $	$ R - F - (C - {C_{\mathrm{e}}}) + (1 - \alpha )B $
	采取“提直降代”策略	$ (1+\zeta)\left[C+(1+\gamma)S-C_{\mathrm{e}}-D\right] $	$ C - {C_{\mathrm{e}}} - D + S $
	不采取“提直降代”策略	$ R - F - (1 + \beta )C $	$ R - F - C $
	不采取“提直降代”策略	$ (1 + \zeta )[(1 + \beta )C + (1 + \gamma )S - D] $	$ C - D + S $

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表 3 均衡点对应的矩阵行列式和迹的表达式

Table 3. Expressions of matrix determinants and traces corresponding to equilibrium points

均衡点	Det J	TrJ
E₁(0,0)	$ [C_{\mathrm{\mathrm{e}}}+(1-\alpha)B]\left\{\beta C+\gamma S+\zeta[(1+\beta)C+(1+\gamma)S-D]\right\} $	$ \left\{\beta C+\gamma S+\zeta[(1+\beta)C+(1+\gamma)S-D]\right\} $$ + [{C_{\mathrm{e}}} + (1 - \alpha )B] $
E₂(0,1)	$ -[C\mathrm{_{\mathrm{\mathrm{e}}}}+(1-\alpha)B]\left\{\gamma S+C\mathrm{_{\mathrm{\mathrm{e}}}}+\zeta[C+(1+\gamma)S-D]\right\} $	$ \left\{\gamma S+C_{\mathrm{e}}+\zeta[C+(1+\gamma)S-D]\right\} $$ - [{C_{\mathrm{e}}} + (1 - \alpha )B] $
E₃(1,0)	$ -\left\{\beta C+\gamma S+\zeta[(1+\beta)C+(1+\gamma)S-D]\right\} $$ [{C_{\mathrm{e}}} + (1 - \alpha )B - L + \beta C] $	$ -\left\{\beta C+\gamma S+\zeta[(1+\beta)C+(1+\gamma)S-D]\right\} $$ + [{C_{\mathrm{e}}} + (1 - \alpha )B] $
E₄(1,1)	$ [C\mathrm{_{\mathrm{e}}}+(1-\alpha)B-L+\beta C]\left\{\gamma S+C_{\mathrm{\mathrm{e}}}+\zeta[C+(1+\gamma)S-D]\right\} $	$ -\left\{\gamma S+C\mathrm{_{\mathrm{e}}}+\zeta[C+(1+\gamma)S-D]\right\} $$ - [{C_{\mathrm{e}}} + (1 - \alpha )B - L + \beta C] $
E₅(x₀,y₀)	$ -x_0y_0(1-x_0)(1-y_0)(\beta C-L)\left[C_{\mathrm{e}}-(1+\zeta)\beta C\right] $	0

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表 4 关键参变量取值

Table 4. Values of key parameters and variables 单位：亿元

R	F	B	D	L	C	S	C_e	α	β	γ	ζ
959.70	824.10	10.85	74.81	57.34	64.14	61.61	10.85	0.81	0.42	0.47	0.10

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